Even if your team is (on paper) stronger than your opponent, there are multiple interacting factors, including the failure aspect, that can lead to an unexpected defeat or draw against a weaker opponent, so focusing mainly on the strength difference is not enough.
In the match overview (newspaper report), each team’s control in various “quadrants” or sectors is shown by colours/percentages. These reflect how well you contested different zones on the pitch (defense, midfield, attack) relative to your opponent.
Even with control in many sectors, converting those into goals depends on many other factors, such as players’ skill sets, the whole team's general strength, the constitution status and general success rate in the match event
Every player is rated every match based on the strength value. Better skills in relevant positions (attack, defense, midfield) increase your chances in duels and in key moments.
However, having a higher strength/rating doesn’t guarantee winning every duel, nor does it reflect how well the player performed in the match; the strength rating shown should show as the visual indicator of how much of potential the player was able to use
A weaker player, in a given moment, can still “win” a duel due to chance (i.e. failure aspect).
The formation and tactic choices of both you and your opponent heavily influence how many chances arise, where those chances come from (wing, center, set pieces, counterattacks), and how difficult they are to convert.
Effort settings (if the game allows adjusting them) further modulate how aggressively or conservatively your side performs.
A weaker team that sets up defensively, counters effectively, or focuses on areas you neglect can exploit weaknesses even if their overall strength is lower.
Bonuses: Upgrades, decorations, and active club bonuses add extra boosts to performance in that particular match.
Team spirit: A higher spirit helps the team perform more consistently. Spirit is raised by winning matches, mental coaches, or having popular players.
Experience: Players’ experience contributes to average strength/performance. More experienced squads may outperform raw stat predictions.
Home advantage: The stadium size, attendance, and being the “home” team give a boost to your performance.
Even a weaker team might benefit from some of these (home match, bonuses, good spirit), narrowing the gap.
The match engine is fundamentally probabilistic: when two players duel, when a chance is made, when a shot is taken — all are subject to chance influenced by skill and other constitution values at that moment of the match (energy, endurance, form, morale, etc)
A more skilled player or team is more likely to succeed in those actions, but not guaranteed.
Thus, even if you “should” have an 80% chance of converting a chance, you can fail multiple times (e.g. 5 shots that miss or are saved).
Conversely, a weaker side might get a low-percentage chance (say 10 %), but still convert it.
Over many matches, a stronger team might win more often, but in a single match, the luck/failure aspect can lead to unpleasant results.
A weaker team can win if they manage to control sectors you neglect or defend well in the areas you attack.
They might benefit from bonuses, team spirit, or home advantage that reduce the effective strength difference.
Your tactics or formation might be suboptimal or allow counterattacks or weaknesses.
Most importantly, because of the probabilistic nature and chance/failure possibility, a stronger team can “underperform” (fail many chances), while a weaker team can “overperform” in that specific match.
Even though differences in quality can be high, the probability that the weaker team converts a small number of chances into a positive outcome always exists. This, in the end, can lead to a surprise loss or draw, which, on the surface, by looking at the overall stats, appears unexplainable. However, it is essentially the result of a positive outcome for the opponent in a single situation. Even with weaker strength, such results remain possible when combined with a noticeable number of failures of your own players. Reducing the rate of failure is a never-ending and difficult challenge.
So losing to a weaker team doesn’t always imply one specific mistake — it can sometimes be a convergence of unfavorable odds, tactical mismatches, and success rate, similar to real-life football.
